I feel we sized the current solar system. It was based on pass usage and the experts modeling. There were a number of factors that I don’t think went into the model, or the model didn’t allow for.

1. Snow outage. One February it snowed then froze then snowed again. By the time I got the scraper up the ice and snow was locked in. I lost the whole month waiting for a thaw. I’ve a long scraper now but I still lose a week in production every time it snows.
2. I’m not sure they really cucullate for the cloudy days. They did rainy days..
3. Last year June production was way off because of the smoke in the air from the forest fires in Canada
4. Outage, I’ll bet I’ve had 6 Optimizer go bad. SolarEdge is quick at getting me new ones but It take me time to get my son-in-law up to replace it. I promised my kids I won’t get up on the roof alone anymore.
5. Outage: My Ivnerte went out last Sept. SolarEdge got me the new one in two weeks and because I need help to lift the 55 pound unit in place, I lost a month pf production.
6. Global Climate change. We feel we run the A/C much more than ever before, so our usage is above the old house. 

I did some additional modeling based on 6 years of usage and real production. It says to hit Net Zero I need to go to 26 panels, maybe 28. I’ve asked my energy provider for permission to add 6 panels to get to the 28. The 4 I added in 2018 I didn’t ask (didn’t know I had to) permission to add them. With the current 22 panels the modeling shows me at 96% of usage, with 26 107% and 28 112%

SRECs: Just sold another 12, total income from SRECs in under 6 years I’ve made. $10,483 selling my SRECs.